Human Error In Maintenance Computer Science Essay

Human Error In Maintenance Computer Science Essay Human errors maybe categorized under six groups with respect to engineering: design errors, assembly errors, installation errors, inspection errors, operating errors and maintenance errors. Maintenance error is the result of the wrong preventive or repair actions carried out by the craft or assigned personnel. Base on the frequency of maintenance being performed the probability of human error increases. To reduce some human errors maintainability is important in the design phase of a component or system. Maintainability according to Ebleing is defined as the probability that a failed system or component will be restored or repaired to a specified condition within a period of time when maintenance is performed in accordance with prescribed procedures. Dhillon describes maintainability as the measure taken during the development, design and installation of a manufactured product that reduces the required maintenance, man hours, tools, logistic cost, skill levels and facilities and ensures that the product meets required intended use. The interactions with humans during the design, installation, production and maintenance phases are extremely important. In some phases these interactions may vary depending on the product, but are subject to deterioration due to human error. With respect to engineering products, Meister describes human error as the failure to carry out a specified task or forbidden action that could result in disruption of scheduled operations or damage to property and equipment. This paper looks at the human errors in maintenance practises. 2.0 General Human Factors in Maintenance Frederick Taylor was one of the earlier people to studied human factors attempting to improve design and increase productivity. In maintenance, systems may fail for numerous reasons, one key element being human factors and errors during the design phase. According to Nertney Et al, the following are a list of different human behaviours: People have a tendency to use their hands for examining and testing People get easily confused with unfamiliar things People are too impatient to take the appropriate amount of time for observing precautions People become accustom to certain colours having certain meanings People sometimes overestimate short distances and underestimate horizontal or large distances People may become complacent and less careful after successfully handling hazardous items over a lengthy period People tend to estimate speed or clearances poorly People responds irrationally in emergencies Instructions and labels are read incorrectly or overlooked Attention is drawn to loudness, flashing lights, bright and vivid colours People have little knowledge of their physical limitations People fail to recheck work for errors after performing a procedure They are reluctant to admit errors or mistakes and they do not see objects clearly People get distracted by certain aspects of a product feature People usually expect valve handles and faucets to rotate counter-clockwise for increasing flow of a liquid steam or gas People carry out task (maintenance) while thinking about other things http://www.iru.org/pix/irupolicies/graph-etac-en_1.gif Figure 2.1 Human Senses and Capabilities The five human senses are touch, smell, taste, visual and hearing. In maintenance, visual, smell, touching and hearing are the more common of the human senses being utilized. 2.1.1 Hearing The ability of human to hear is an important factor in maintenance work. When designing for maintainability, excessive noise may lead to problems such as the need for intense concentration, a reduction in workers efficiencies, lost of hearing, unwanted effects on the tasks being performed. 2.1.2 Sight Sight is stimulated by electromagnetic radiation of certain wavelengths. This is measured on the electromagnetic spectrum for visible light. The human eye is sensitive to greenish-yellow light and it sees it differently from different angles. The following are some facts about the human eye: Normally, the eye can perceive all colours when looking straight ahead. As the viewing angle increases, colour perception decreases significantly. When there is poor lighting it may be impossible to determine the colour of a small point of light source. The source usually appears white. When designing components, designers should consider colours such that weak colour people do not get confused. An example is to use red filter with a wavelength greater than 6,500 Ã…, and try to avoid placing too emphasis on colour when critical tasks are to be performed by tired personnel. 2.1.3 Touch Touch complements a human ability to interpret visual and audio. Touch maybe used to relieve the eyes and ears of the load. The sense of touch has been used for centuries in technical work. For example, touch has been used for detecting surface irregularities and roughness. 2.2 Ergonomic Principles The subject addresses human to system interface issues also called human engineering or engineering psychology. In addition to considering the human to system interface, ergonomics is also concerned with: Human dimension The working environment and its effect on humans Effects of systems on humans http://www.omron-ap.com/technical_guide/safety_component/safety_component_12.gif Figure 3.0 Maintenance Errors Human errors in maintenance occur for a number of reasons. In figure 3, a list of different reasons is shown for errors with respect to maintenance. Studies have shown a positive correlation between task performance and amount of time in a career field, ability to handle responsibility, morale and years or experience. Workers who possess these skills are ranked higher and works are generally done faster and with fewer errors. Figure Reason for Human Errors 3.1 Inadequate training and Experience Workers who are inadequately trained and lack the experience on a machine or component will most likely make errors when performing maintenance tasks. They will spend additional time trying to understand what to do rather than effective execution of the task. Errors such as correct shut down procedures, tightening of bolts, correct alignment of components may be done wrong and adversely affecting production, increasing maintenance cost as maintenance work may need to be repeated and can be a safety risk to the maintenance personnel, operator, or the equipment. 3.2 Poorly Written Maintenance Procedures Due to poorly written procedures, there could be cases of components going in wrong place or new components being incorrectly installed. This as with the previous reason can cause harm to craft personnel, operator or the machine. Tasks will take longer because the craft personnel following the procedure will have to spend more time figuring out what to do rather than carrying out the task in a timely and effective manner. 3.3 Fatigued Maintenance Personnel A fatigued maintenance personnel is a receipt for disaster. The personnel will lack concentration and will miss minor details of the work. There will be general tendency to rush the job in attempt to finish fast increasing the probability of errors. This may be influenced by the time of the day, stresses (physical, drug, social, personal) http://elsmar.com/Error_Proofing/img014.jpg Figure 3.4 Complex Maintenance Task Complex and tedious maintenance task may be subject to human errors because of the high levels of concentration required. Humans usually have a low attention span and works requiring excessive hours of concentration may have errors induced. Such jobs should be done in teams so that if one personnel makes an error it can be corrected by other members on the job. 3.5 Improper Work Tools A job requiring a specific tool should not be substituted with an inferior one. An example of this is when a specified torque may be required on a bolt or nut requiring a torque wrench or spanner to achieve a level of precision and accuracy and a regular wrench or spanner is used. This may cause misalignment, et cetera. 3.6 Poor Work Layout Poor work layout is inefficient and can cause errors to be made by the maintenance personnel. 3.7 Poor Work Environment A poor work environment will cause discomfort to the maintenance personnel such as humidity, lighting and heat. Concentration levels will be low and there will be a rush to complete the task. 3.8 Poor Equipment Design In some equipment, components may be difficult to reach to perform the necessary works. Errors may be caused in the process as the tasks may not be carried out completely. 3.9 Outdated Maintenance Manuals It will be extremely difficult for maintenance personnel to follow out-dated maintenance manuals. In such an instance, the procedure will most times be incorrect inducing a number of errors in the job. 3.10 Factors Contributing to Human Error Reason and Hobbs have studied and researched the psychological and physiological factors that contribute to inevitable human error. These will include: Differences between the capabilities of our long term memory and our conscious workspace. Attention span is limited if it is focused on one thing. Also we can only attend to a very small proportion of the total available sensory data we receive Unrelated matters tend to capture our attention Concentration is hard to maintain for lengthy periods of time The ability to concentrate depends strongly on intrinsic capability of the current object attention Habitual actions are done will less attention than normal The right balance of attention is required to correctly perform a task The vigilance decrement- inspectors miss fault because it may become redundant after doing it for a long period The level of arousal- too much or too little impairs work output Biases in thinking and decision making Confirmation bias where we seek information that confirms initial diagnosis of a problem Emotional decision making is when a situation is frustrating then an aggressive approach is induced http://www.lifetime-reliability.com/images/wrongs-humans-do-to-machines.gif Figure Human Maintenance Errors Base on the aforementioned factors contributing to maintenance errors, the following are the most common types of errors: Recognition Failures These include misidentification of objects, signal and messages and non detection of problem states. Memory failures Input failures- Insufficient attention is to the to-be-remembered item. Storage failures- remembered material suffers interference Output failures- things that we know cannot be recalled at the required time Omissions following interruptions Premature Exists- End a job before all tasks are complete Skilled-based Slips Usually associated with routines and they can include: Branching errors- an error made based on a custom and not knowing when to deviate. Over shoot Errors- having an intention but forgetting to do it Rule base Mistakes Misapplying a Good Rule- using a right rule in a wrong situation Applying a bad rule- unwanted consequences in using a rule even though the job will be done. Knowledge Based Errors It is common when someone is doing a task for the first time but not always the case. Violations Purposeful acts which violates procedures. These may be: Routine violations- done to avoid unnecessary effort, gets the task done quickly, to demonstrate skill or avoid what is seen as an unnecessary laborious procedure. Thrill seeking violations- often committed in order to avoid boredom or win peer praise Situational violations- these exist because it is not possible to get the job done if procedures are strictly adhered to. Figure Summary of main error types 4.0 Mitigation/Reduction of Hum Errors in Maintenance It is impossible to total alleviate all human errors when it comes to maintenance, but Engineers and designers have worked together and is continuing to find ways to reduce some human errors. However a lot of the responsibility is on the maintenance personnel to ensure that maintenance tasks are carried out effectively. This chapter looks at ways to reduce human errors in maintenance. 4.1 Avoid Unnecessary Preventive Maintenance Over maintaining equipment, not only wastes time and money but it also increases the risks of environmental incidents but also causes expensive and unnecessary failures. Reliability Centred Techniques such as Failure Mode and Cause Analysis, Fault Tree Analysis and others can be useful eliminating unnecessary maintenance works and optimizes and streamlines the equipment preventive maintenance. 4.2 Standardization Ankenbrandt et al noted that standardization is the attainment of practical uniformity in product design. Non-standard equipment or component lessens the reliability and increases maintenance. Standardization restricts the number of components equipment will require. The advantages of standardization according to Dhillon are: Reduction of using the incorrect parts Reduction in wiring and installation errors due to the fact of variations in characteristics of similar items Elimination for the need for special parts Reduction of incidents because of the use of wrong or unclear procedures Reduction in design time, manufacturing cost, and maintenance cost Reduction of procurement, stocking and training Figure 7 shows the goals of standardization. Figure Goals for reducing errors 4.3 Modularization Modularization deals with a production into physically and functionally distinct units to allow removal and replacement. The following are guidelines for the usefulness associated with modular units: Aim to make modules and parts as uniform as possible with respect to size and shape Divide the equipment or item under consideration into many modular units Aim to make each module of being inspected independently Design the equipment so that a single person can replace a failed part with ease and also parts should be small for mobility Module should be designed for maximum ease of operational testing when it is removed from the actual equipment or system. Consider design, modularization and material problems simultaneously For ease of disconnection, design components with control levers and linkages to allow easier replacement. 4.4 Simplification and Accessibility Design engineers should consider simplification in the design phase and it should be constant. Consideration should also be taken with the important functions of a system or a product into the design itself. Accessibility is the ease with which an item can be reached for repair, replacement or servicing. Poor accessibility will result in sub-standard maintenance. Accessibility is affected by: The visual needs of personnel performing maintenance task, The location of an item and its environment. Distance to be reached to access the component or part The types of maintenance to be performed through an access point or opening The danger associated with use of an access opening The clothing worn my maintenance personnel The task required time for execution The types of tools and accessories required to perform task Mounting of items behind the access point Work clearance to carry out task 4.5 Interchangeability and Identification Interchangeability refers to as an intentional aspect of design, that any component can be replaced with a similar item. This is achieved through standardization. There are three basic principles for interchangeability according to the Department of Defence (DOD): In items, components and products requiring frequent servicing, replacement of parts, each part must be interchangeable with another similar part Liberal tolerance must exist Strict interchangeability could become uneconomical in items that are expected to operate without replacement. The following considerations are taken to achieve maximum interchangeability of parts: Existence of functional interchangeability when physical interchangeability is a design characteristic Sufficient information in task instruction and number plate identification should be available for allowing users to decide confidently whether two similar parts are interchangeable No change in method of connecting and mounting when there are part or unit modifications Avoid or stay away from differences in size, mounting and shape Availability of adapters for making physical interchangeability possible when total interchangeability is not practical There should be and identification system for total interchangeability of identical parts 4.5.1 Identification Identification is concerned with labelling or making of parts, controls and test points to facilitate tasks such as repair and replacement. Maintenance task becomes more difficult when parts and components are no properly identified. It usually takes longer and increases the risk of human induced errors. Identification could be for parts or component or equipment identification. 4.6 Task Analysis The task analysis is a formal methodology derived from systems analysis which describes and analyse performance demands made upon humans within a system. The aim is to achieve integration of humans and machine system components. 5.0 Assessing the Risk in Maintenance Risk assessments of all human activities have great importance for the prevention of major accidents. The risk with respect to human errors when dealing with maintenance needs to be assessed and rank based on the overall impact the risk can have on the operation of the organization. The Risk Management Framework used is shown in Figure 8.0 This program was utilized to conduct a risk assessment and evaluation before and after the risk control measures have been put in place. The main aspects of the Risk Analysis procedure are: i. Identify Potential Hazards and existing risk control or safeguards. ii. Estimate the consequences of the potential Hazard. iii. Estimate the frequency of each of the impact/consequence of the potential hazard. iv. Determine the Risk without considering any new risk control or safeguards v. Determine the Risk with proposed new safeguard vi. Evaluate Economic impact of proposed new safeguard vii. Optimize and propose additional modification. Figure Risk Management Framework As indicate in the previous chapter (3), each human error identified will have to be ranked via a metric scoring system to determine the hierarchy of the error. The impact of these errors will have to be taken into consideration with respect to the employees (operators and maintenance staff), the equipment and the environment. Figure Diagram Showing Contributors of Risk 6.0 Human Errors in Maintenance in Industry Human error in maintenance exists in some form or the other in all industries. However, in some industries the consequences of human error from maintenance task can be catastrophic. Industries such as nuclear plants and civil aviation cannot afford errors. 6.1 Human Maintenance Errors in Power Generation Human factors play an important role in power plant maintenance because improving the maintainability design of power plant facilities, systems and equipment assists to improve direct and indirect plant productivity, availability and safety. According to Seminara power lost can cost between US $500,000 to 750,000 dollars a day. The following are human related deficiencies in maintenance of a power plant: Limited access or inadequate clearance to perform maintenance Equipment poorly designed to facilitate maintenance activity effectively Equipment Inherently unreliable Personnel safety hazard Impaired mobility for equipment and personnel Miscellaneous- lack of standardization, high temperature environment and poor air conditioning While maintenance activities of nuclear power plants are essential for sustaining the safety of a power plant and maintaining the reliability of plant systems and components, they also have potential of human errors leading to unplanned reactor trips or power derate (Dhillon 2006). J. Reason classifies in chapter 3 the different characteristics of human errors that will be applicable to Power Plants. According to Kim et al, incidents reports in Korea stated that most of the human related unplanned reactor trip events during the normal power operation are associated with test and maintenance activities (63%). Plant maintenance included preventive maintenance, planned maintenance and corrective maintenance. 6.2 Human Error in Aviation Due to the increase in air travels, airlines spend billions of dollars in maintenance annually. A study done in the United Kingdom has shown that between 1990 to 2000 maintenance errors per million flights has doubled (ICAO) According to the ICAO there are over 300 factors and influences that can impact the performance of maintenance personnel. Some of the human errors that are impacted by maintenance are listed in chapter 3 and range from time pressure, inadequate training to outdated maintenance manuals. There are many categories of human errors with respect to aviation maintenance and inspection. Some of the major ones encountered according to Latorella et al are: Incorrect assembly sequence Procedural defects Wrong part Incorrect configuration Missing part Defective part Functional defects and tactical defects Figure List of Errors in Aircraft Maintenance Figure 10 shows the guideline covered in aviation. Two important guidelines concerning design are: Seek relevant information on human error occurrence during the maintenance phase as inputs in the design phase Ensure that manufacturers give attention to maintenance related human factors during design phase According to James Reason based on a Boeing study which indicated the top seven causes for in-flight engine shut downs on the Boeing aircraft were as followed: Incomplete Installation (33%) Damaged on installation (14.5%) Improper Installation (11%) Equipment not installed or missing (11%) Foreign Object Damage (6.5%) Improper fault isolation, inspection and test (6%) Equipment not activated or deactivated (4%) From the statistics presented only one cause was unrelated to maintenance activities. Maintenance activities were responsible for approximately 80% of in-flight engine shut downs. 7.0 Prediction Models for Human Errors Human error can be analysed by several methods developed over the years. Some of the following methods are relied on heavily in the aviation industry. 7.1 Cause and Effect Diagrams This is a useful tool to determine root causes of specified problem in relation to maintenance errors. Related and relevant ideas are generated. The extreme right of the diagram represent effect and to the right are all the possible causes. The cause and effect can be generated in the following steps: Develop problem statement Brainstorm to identify possible causes Establish major causes categories by stratifying into natural and process steps Connect diagram to all the causes by following the appropriate process steps and filled in the effects Refine cause categories by asking What cause this and Why does this condition exists? 7.2 Error Cause Removal Program (ECRP) This was developed to reduce the occurrence of human error to a tolerable level in production operation. It focuses on preventive measures rather than remedial ones. It is composed of a team of workers with each team having its own coordinator with the necessary skills. Each team member presents a report and the coordinator discusses these reports in a periodic meeting and recommendations are made to management. 7.3 Fault Tree Analysis The fault tree analysis (FTA) is used to perform reliability and safety analyses of engineering system and can be use to perform analysis of human error in maintenance. 7.4 Markov Analysis This method is used to perform reliability analysis of engineering systems and can be used to predict the probability of occurrence of human error in maintenance. This is done through mathematical modelling. 7.4.1 Model 1 This mathematical model indicates a system that can fail due to maintenance error or other failures. See figure 11. Numerals in box, circle and diamonds represents system states. The following assumptions are made for this model. The system can fail due to maintenance error or failure other than maintenance error The failed system is repaired and maintenance is performed periodically Fail system repair rates are constant The repaired system is as good as new Figure Markov Model 1 Diagram 7.4.2 Model II This mathematical model represent a system that can only fail due to non maintenance related failures but its performance is degraded by the occurrence of maintenance error. See figure 12. The numeral in circle, box and diamonds represents system states. The following assumptions are made for this model: The total or partially failed system is repaired and preventive maintenance is performed regularly The occurrence of maintenance error can only lead to system degradation but not failure The system can fail from its degradation mode due to failures other than maintenance errors The system is repaired at constant rates from its failed and degradation states Maintenance error and non maintenance error failure rates are constant The repaired system is good as new Figure Markov Model 2 8.0 Conclusion This report gives a comprehensive analysis of human errors in maintenance. Human errors are inevitable and there are numerous factors that can influence these errors. The first step is to identify the different human errors that may be encountered in an industry, conduct an assessment on the errors and take necessary steps to reduce these errors. The traditional approach of dealing with human error, that is counselling and or re writing procedures may not be effective in dealing with the errors identified in this report. A more holistic approach for managing maintenance error and assuring maintenance quality techniques is the application of reliability centred maintenance and also designing for maintainability.

The Short Story Of Night - A C :: essays research papers

"The Short History Of Night" by John Mighton fervently seeks to expound upon the idea that societal disorder will eventually affect all levels of society despite any purposeful attempts to be detached, whether physically, using status or otherwise. Throughout many facets of the play this thought is effectively echoed, more particularly in the areas of set design, sound and light design, and character development. The utilization of levels in the set design is sensibly used in what I believe, a twofold purpose. First, and more obviously, to create various physical levels on stage with the use of the raised circular portion as in the scene with Kepler and his soon-to-be wife sitting on a hill awaiting his "prophesied" comet or with the depiction of Tycho's observatory. On the other hand, this rise in physical level also produces a platform for a higher level of observation or rationale. Kepler's wife, while standing on this upper level, would begin to ponder and question her husband on various topics possibly beyond her character's intelligence level as inferred by her husband's response. It is ironic that she is also placed at this level as she is "raving" during her interrogation on her involvement with witchcraft. Therefore, following the same train of thought, the use of this arrangement suggests that her examiners, namely the Inquisitor, are merely acting out of ignoran ce. Most tangible however, is the complete black appearance of the set that helps considerably to establish the notion that the play is a representation of place in a period of discord. The darkness of the set creates a sense of eerieness and obscurity that draws the audience into the social upheaval of this period. More interestingly, over the course of the play this "blackness" extends into the allusion of the lurking evils of the society and its possible infiltration at any time on the unsuspecting. Working in conjunction with the set, to completely produce the aforementioned effect, is the sound and lighting design. Strikingly impressive, is the use of shadows to create scenes and evoke mood, as with the shadow representation of the forest creating the setting and generating a harrowing atmosphere -- perfect for Kepler's secret journey to Tycho's observatory. The sound and music successfully accentuate the growing conflict in the play with the extensive use of tension chords, particularly during the arrival of the Inquisitor and the scene changes, creating dissonant, chaotic-sounding tones.

Food Prices Essay

Why Did Global Food Prices Rise? For the last 25 years global food prices have been falling, driven by the increased productivity and output of the farm sector worldwide. In 2007, this came to an abrupt end as global food prices soared. By September 2007, the world price of wheat rose to over $400 a ton-the highest ever recorded and up from $200 a ton in May. The price of corn (maize) surged to $175 a ton, some 60 percent above its average for 2006. An index of food prices, adjusted for inflation, which The Economist magazine has kept since 1845, hit its highest level ever in December 2007. One explanation for rising food prices has been increased demand. The increased demand has been driven by greater food consumption in rapidly developing nations, most notably China and India. Rising consumption of meat, in particular, has driven up demand for grains; it takes eight kilograms of cereals to produce one kilogram of beef, so as demand for meat rises, consumption of grains by cattle surges. Farmers now feed 200 to250 million more tons of grain to their animals than they did 20 years ago, driving up grain prices. Then there is the issue of bio-fuel subsidies. Both the United States and the European Union have adopted policies to increase production of ethanol and bio-diesel in order to slow down global warming (both products are argued to produce fewer C02 emissions, although exactly how effective they are at doing this is actively debated). In 2000, around 15 million tons of American Corn was turned into ethanol; in 2007 the figure reached 85 million tons. To promote increased production, governments have given subsidies to farmers. In the United States subsidies amount to between $0. 29 and $0. 36 per litre of ethanol. In Europe the subsidies are as high as $1 a litre. Not surprisingly, the subsidies have created an incentive for farmers to plant more crops that can be turned into bio-fuels (primarily corn and soy beans). This has diverted land away from production of corn and soy for food, and reduced the supply of land devoted to growing crops that don’t receive bio-fuel subsidies, such as wheat. This highly subsidized source of demand seems to be having a dramatic effect on demand for corn and soy beans. In 2007, fur example, the U. S.increase in demand for corn-based ethanol accounted for more than half of the global increase in demand for corn. What is complicating the situation is that high tariffs are shutting out producers of alternative products that can be turned into bio fuels, most notably sugar cane, from the U. S. and EU markets by high tariffs. Brazil, the world’s most efficient producer of sugar cane, confronts import tariffs of at least 25 percent by value in the United States and 50 percent in the European Union, raising the price of imported sugar cane and making it uncompetitive with subsidized com and soy beans. This is unfortunate because sugar cane is widely seen as a more environmentally friendly raw material for bio-fuels than either corn or soy. Sugar cane uses less fertilizer than corn or soy and produces a higher yield per hectare in terms of its energy content. Ethanol is also produced from what used to be considered a waste produce, the fibre removed from the cane during processing. If policy makers have their way, however, the situation may get even worse. Plans in both the United States and the European Union call for an increase in the production of bio-fuels, but neither political entity has agreed to reduce tariff barriers on sugar cane or to remove the trade distorting subsidies given to those who produce corn and soy for bio-fuels. Brazil is not sitting on the sidelines; in 2007 it asked the World Trade Organization to probe U. S. subsidies to corn farmers for ethanol production. Supplementary Reading article-Rising global food prices threaten to increase poverty. 2 Rising Global Food Prices Threaten to Increase Poverty by Kata Fustos. (April 2011) Global food prices have been rising, threatening to reach record levels in the coming months if current trends continue. Growing world demand due to increasing world population and shifting consumption patterns, and lower supplies partly due to bad weather raised the World Bank’s food price index by 15 percent between October 2010 and January 2011. 1 The index increased by 29 percent overall between February 2010 and February 2011. In January, the Food Price Index of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) was at its highest level since tracking began in 1990. 2 While not all countries are affected equally, the recent volatility is particularly alarming in regions where people spend more than half of their income on food. Global Food Prices Surge to Record Levels, Hurting the Poor in Low- and Middle-Income Countries A combination of unfavorable weather patterns around the world and uncertainty in the quality of wheat harvests in China has affected the global food supply. Record heat and drought in 2010 in the former Soviet Union sharply reduced wheat production and dealt a shock to global wheat supplies. Extreme dry weather in Brazil—a major food exporter—contributed greatly to worldwide deficits of sugar, soybeans, and maize. Devastating rain and floods in Australia damaged wheat crops and reduced the yields of sugar harvests. Additionally, a severe drought in China threatens the harvest of the country’s wheat crop and has prompted the FAO to issue a special alert, characterizing the current situation as â€Å"potentially a serious problem. â€Å"3 For decades, China has relied mostly on its own domestic grain production and was absent from the global grain market. However, if the drought destroys a significant portion of the harvest and China has to import grain to fulfill domestic demand, the impact can shock the world market and cause even sharper increases in global prices. As a result of China’s buying power, it can outbid others in the global market, and secure supplies for its own population. An expanding world population, greater reliance on crops as biofuels, and shifting diets continue to increase the collective demand for food, making the gap between supply and demand even wider. Since price volatility and growing demand are likely to persist, â€Å"we need global action to ensure we do a better job of feeding the hungry before we face the future challenges of feeding the expected 9 billion people in the world in 2050,† said Robert Zoellick, World Bank president. 4 According to the World Bank index, global sugar prices reached a 30-year high in the beginning of 2011, after increasing 12 percent since January 2010. Edible oil prices have risen 73 percent since June 2010. Among grains, the price of wheat has increased the most, more than doubling between June 2010 and January 2011. The price of maize has been affected by the surge in the wheat and oil markets and also jumped about 73 percent during the second half of 2010. Other food items that contribute to dietary diversity, such as vegetables and beans, have also experienced large price increases. Prices do not rise at the same rate in all countries; domestic markets are affected based on how well governments are 3 able to shield their population from global price surges through the use of subsidies, import taxes, and increased domestic production. Figure 1 Change in World Commodity Prices, January 2010 to January 2011 Source: World Bank, â€Å"Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet),† accessed at http://siteresources. worldbank. org/INTDAILYPROSPECTS/Resources/Pnk_0411. pdf, on April 1, 2011. Although food prices had been increasing for seven consecutive months by February 2011, the price of all items had not grown at the same pace (see Figure 1). According to the World Bank’s Food Price Watch, this differentiates the current situation from the price surges of 2008, when food riots broke out across the developing world. Meat prices have stayed relatively stable over the past year. Following good harvests in exporting countries, the global price of rice was actually lower at the end of 2010 than in the beginning of the year, and it remains 70 percent below its 2008 peak. Therefore, rice provides a more affordable alternative grain to the poor and its accessibility has prevented more people from sinking into poverty and undernourishment. At the same time, some Asian economies have seen sharp increases in rice prices. In Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Indonesia—all high rice consumption countries—domestic rice prices increased over 30 percent in the past year. 5 Soaring food prices disproportionately hurt the poor in developing countries. This is especially true in regions where people spend a majority of their income on food and rely on a specific food product. Although some farmers and food producers are benefitting from greater profits, the net effect of higher prices is a rise in the number of the poor. The World Bank estimates that an additional 44 million people have fallen into poverty in the developing world as a result of higher food prices. Overall, the number of chronically hungry people began to climb again after a brief decrease to 925 million in 2010 (see Figure 2). According 4 to Zoellick, â€Å"the trends towards the 1 billion are worrisome. Global food prices are rising to dangerous levels and threaten tens of millions of poor people around the world. â€Å"6 Figure 2 Distribution of Undernourished People in the World in 2010 (in Millions) Source: FAO Statistics Division, accessed at www. fao. org/economic/ess/en/, on April 7, 2011. India Especially Affected by High Prices Food prices are rising faster in India than in other large economies. As the country’s population continues to grow and middle class incomes rise, there is increasing pressure on the government to provide food for the entire country. Despite rapid economic growth over the past decade, India still struggles to feed its population: According to the 2005/2006 National Family Health Survey, 40 percent of children below the age of 3 were underweight and 45 percent were stunted. 7 Lack of investment has kept domestic agricultural productivity low as manual labor remains the dominant source of domestic food production. In 2008/2009, agriculture employed about 52 percent of the labor force, but only made up 13 percent of India’s GDP. 8 Farming and agriculture remain greatly inefficient and inadequate for feeding the country’s 1. 2 billion people. Low production and an unusually wet summer in 2010 contributed to the current domestic food inflation that reached a 16 percent annual rate in January 2011. This composite figure masks the rise in the price of some staples, such as onion and garlic, which rose by 71 percent during the past year. The sharp increase is most alarming for the 41 percent of the population in India who live on $1. 25 or less a day and spend a majority of their income on food, as even basic items are becoming unaffordable. 9 The government is responding to the current crisis by providing heavy subsidies for agricultural production and by importing increasing amounts of some staples, such as lentils and beans, to ensure their availability. It has also put export restrictions on certain products to keep them for domestic consumption. 10 These policies can only provide temporary solutions, however: Long-term investment is required in agricultural research to improve the quality of seeds, irrigation techniques, and modernize other production components. 115. References 1. World Bank, â€Å"Food Price Watch† (February 2011), accessed at www.worldbank. org/foodcrisis/food_price_watch_report_feb2011. html, on Feb. 17, 2011. 2. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), â€Å"Global Food Price Monitor† (Feb. 3, 2011), accessed at www. fao. org/giews/english/gfpm/GFPM_02_2011. pdf, on Feb. 16, 2011. 3. FAO Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture, â€Å"Special Alert: A Severe Winter Drought in the North China Plain May Put Wheat Production at Risk† (Feb. 8, 2011). 4. World Bank, â€Å"Food Security Fears Rise Along With Prices† (April 2011), accessed at http://go. worldbank. org/VCXQZNWRA0, on April 7, 2011. 5. World Bank, â€Å"Food Price Watch† and FAO, â€Å"Global Food Price Monitor. † 6. â€Å"Food Price Hike Drives 44 Million People into Poverty,† World Bank Press Release No: 2011/333/PREM (Feb. 15, 2011), accessed at http://go. worldbank. org/OFGV8BZN20, on Feb. 17, 2011. 7. National Family Heath Survey, â€Å"Key Indicators for India† (2005-06), accessed at www. nfhsindia. org/pdf/India. pdf, on Feb. 16, 2011. 8. Ministry of Finance, Government of India, â€Å"Economic Survey 2010-11† (February 2011). 9. UNDP, â€Å"Multidimensional Poverty Index,† accessed at http://hdr. undp. org/en/media/HDR_2010_EN_Table5_reprint. pdf, on Feb. 17, 2011. 10. Corey Flintoff, â€Å"Food Price Surge Puts Strain on India’s Poor,† NPR (Jan. 6, 2011). 11. Renuka Mahadevan, â€Å"Productivity Growth in Indian Agriculture: The Role of Globalization and Economic Reform† Asia-Pacific Development Journal, Vol. 10, No. 2, December 2003. Case Discussion Questions 1. Who benefits from government policies to (a) promote production of ethanol and (b) place tariff barriers on imports of sugar cane? Who suffers as a result of these policies? 2. One estimate suggests that if food prices rise by one-third, they will reduce living standards in rich countries by about 3 percent, but in very poor ones by about 20 percent. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, unless policies change, cereal prices will rise by 10 to 20 percent by 2015 , and the expansion of bio fuel production could reduce calorie intake by 2 to 8 percent by 2020 in many of the world ‘s poorest nations. Should rich countries do anything about this potential problem? If so, what? 3. How might a policy of free trade in the United States and European Union cause food prices to drop? Should the United States eliminate the subsidies it pays to corn farmers? How might a free trade policy facilitate the efforts of the United Nations’ World Food Programme? 4. Consider the social implications of trade policy that is pro-producer. Is such a policy ethical when considered from the perspective of non-producers? What are the drawbacks of following a policy designed to protect the interests of certain groups within a country? 5. Protectionism in agriculture has been a central issue for the World Trade Organization in recent years. Given the current implications of the rising costs of food for the world’s poor, should the World Trade Organization do more?

Bipolar Disorder And Its Effects On The Patient s Life

In the world of mental health disorders, one of the most common is Bipolar Disorder. According to the Depression and Bipolar Support Alliance (DBSA), Bipolar Disorder affects as much as 2.6% of the adult population. The effects of Bipolar Disorder can range from mild (having little impact on the patient’s day to day life) to severe (making the patient’s life debilitating and nonfunctioning). Bipolar Disorder also has a devastating effect on the patient’s friends and family. Bipolar Disorder is one of the most common mental health disorders, however, with proper treatment; the sufferer can go on to live a normal and useful life. Body Bipolar Disorder is defined as â€Å"a brain disorder that causes unusual shifts in mood, energy, activity†¦show more content†¦The hypomanic episode is a less severe manifestation of a manic episode. The depressive episode is marked by a period of depression, where the patient feels hopeless and sad, while losing interest in the things that they normally enjoy. The depressive episode may resemble Clinical Depression, which is defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorder (DSM) as: For clinical depression, you must have five or more of the following symptoms over a two-week period, most of the day, nearly every day. At least one of the symptoms must be either a depressed mood or a loss of interest or pleasure. Signs and symptoms may include: †¢ Depressed mood, such as feeling sad, empty or tearful (in children and teens, depressed mood can appear as constant irritability) †¢ Significantly reduced interest or feeling no pleasure in all or most activities †¢ Significant weight loss when not dieting, weight gain, or decrease or increase in appetite (in children, failure to gain weight is expected) †¢ Insomnia or increased desire to sleep †¢ Either restlessness or slowed behavior that can be observed by others †¢ Fatigue or loss of energy †¢ Feelings of worthlessness, or excessive or inappropriate guilt †¢ Trouble making decisions, or trouble thinking or concentrating †¢ Recurrent thoughts of death or suicide, or a suicide attempt (‘Diseases and Conditions; Bipolar Disorder’, 2015). The difference between Bipolar disorder and Clinical depression is the presence of manic